NWS: Snowy Winter Won't Guarantee Spring Flooding

DULUTH - With all the snow the Northland has seen this winter, one might think there’s a high chance for flooding this spring, but it all boils down to heat.

Currently, Duluth has about 26 inches of snow just sitting on the ground.

Most of that is thanks to the big snow storm early in December.

Even with that storm, experts say a spring flood isn’t guaranteed.

At the National Weather Service in Duluth, meteorologists do a measurement once a week called a snow core.

It tells them how much water the snow will produce when it starts to melt.

Melody Lovin, a meteorologist for NWS said, "We essentially just measure what's sitting on the ground; we melt it down to find the equivalent. What we measured yesterday was 3.6 inches of liquid sitting on the ground, and this number is actually about normal for this time of year."

Although the measurement is normal now, that doesn’t mean a flood isn’t likely. 

There are two flood causing scenarios on the board.

First, is if we get another big snow storm that drops more than a foot of snow.

Second, is if we get a mini heat wave early spring, causing the 26 inches we currently have to melt in a day or two.

According to the National Weather Service, a March snow storm is more likely when you compare it to a

short spring warm up. They also said it is hard to predict the weather this far out, but it’s definitely something to keep an eye on.

Melting typically occurs in April.